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                                                                                                                                                                          凯斯线上娱乐网:欧美通胀走势分化,国内通胀/出口/社融均反弹丨宏观综述

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年04月13日 17:25 来源:炎黄新闻网

                                                                                                                                                                            作者:肖利娜(Z0013350),一德期货宏观分析师

                                                                                                                                                                            报告完成时间:2019年4月12日

                                                                                                                                                                            国外方面

                                                                                                                                                                            本周,美国方面,美国3月CPI和PPI同比均高于前值。3月CPI同比1.9%,高于预期的1.8%,较上月反弹0.4个百分点,但核心CPI同比2%,低于前值及预期值2.1%,对美联储加息仍有抑制效用,核心CPI的下降主因服装和汽车价格下滑影响,而3月CPI的涨幅扩大受油价上涨推动。同时,美国3月PPI同比回升0.3个百分点至2.2%,核心PPI符合预期,较前值下降0.1%,显示主要是能源价格上涨对PPI增长提振。10日美联储会议纪要显示,当前美国经济内外仍存在较大不确定性,通胀的回升还需后续数据验证,今年年后不加息是大多数参会者的预判。美国价格指数的超预期,使得美元指数近两日震荡上涨,而从美国总体经济表现来看,美元大概率仍是震荡格局,区间在96-97.5。

                                                                                                                                                                            欧洲方面,在欧元区经济趋弱的背景下,欧元区通胀放缓呈低迷态势,其中德、法3月CPI同比终值为1.3%和1.1%,符合预期,较2%通胀目标差距较大。欧央行3月议息会议保持维持利率不变但宽松态度明显,表示将于9月推出第三轮长期再融资操作,并暗示年内不加息,同时大幅下调经济增长和通胀预期,进而加剧市场对欧洲经济的担忧。欧央行超预期鸽派指引使得欧元震荡中枢下移,在美元指数高位震荡格局下,欧元兑美元汇率短期将保持在1.13之下。

                                                                                                                                                                            国内方面

                                                                                                                                                                            3月,中国CPI同比上涨0.8个百分点至2.3%,符合预期,重回“2时代”;其中,食品价格上涨4.1%,回升3.4个百分点;非食品价格增长1.8%,较上月回升0.1个百分点。从中可看出,3月CPI的上涨主要受食品价格大幅反弹推动,其中猪肉价格同比增速受猪瘟及猪周期叠加影响结束25个月负增长转正至5.1%;另外,受天气影响,鲜菜价格同比上涨16.2%,回升14.5个百分点,两者合计拉动CPI上涨了0.54个百分点。考虑到鲜菜价格受天气影响波动较大,随着气温的回升,4月价格将会回调;而猪肉价格受猪瘟持续影响供给偏紧而价格仍有一定上涨可能,加上油价的上涨趋势放缓,4月CPI或小幅回调,上半年在2.3%左右波动,高点看到2.5%-2.6%。

                                                                                                                                                                            3月,中国PPI环比增长0.1%,是连续4个月环比下降之后首次正增长,同比回升0.3个百分点至0.4%,受3月PMI五大扩散指数普遍回升、经济景气全面改善提振。具体来看,原油价格持续上涨拉动石油和天然气开采业,石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业环比较上月分别回升0.6和1.4个百分点,另外黑色系大宗商品受市场供求企稳而黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业环比回升0.8个百分点。随着经济增长动能逐步改善,短期工业品价格或仍有上升,而在经济总需求总体下降背景下,工业品价格中枢是下降的,短期反弹过后或在二季度末仍会有明显调整。12日下午,进出口和社融信贷数据公布,3月出口超预期大幅上涨14%,而进口跌幅扩大;社融大幅反弹至2.86亿元,M2也创2018年以来新高,关注随后我公司贸易及金融数据解读报告。

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